Taiwan issue may again escalate and both countries will try to solve the problem non militarily and a cycle of sanctions will begin. This election cycle will coincide with the second anniversary of President Narendra Modi’s re-election and will serve as a mid-term referendum on his leadership. Biden is also starting negotiations to join Nuclear Deal (JCPOA). Companies should continue to monitor triggers for potential political instability. Companies should continue to monitor international diplomatic approaches to Syria to assess the likelihood of an improvement in the sanctions and security environment for international businesses. If it flops, and the country’s health and economic emergency extends deep into 2021, Republican opposition will intensify and grow more rigid. IntelBrief: Geopolitical Trends that Will Pose Challenges to the Biden Administration President-elect Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden are joined by Vice President-elect Kamala Harris and her husband Doug Emhoff during a COVID-19 memorial event at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2021, in Washington. COVID permitting, China will hold national celebrations on a very grand scale. Monitor social sentiment and plan for continued political and regulatory change in the next year. This is particularly important in the current environment, in which COVID-19 is acting as a great accelerator for geopolitical trends. The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) will convene its five-yearly Congress and confirm its new political leadership. With Brexit done and dusted, Covid-19 vaccine is on its way and predicted President in the Oval office, 2021 should by rights be an easier year for EU. Find predictions, insights and analysis on global outlook, markets and geopolitics. The pandemic has accelerated the geopolitical trends we were watching in the beginning of 2020. The elections are expected to mobilise relatively large anti-government protests. With President Joe Biden in office in the US, the prospects for its renewal are significantly improved. Elections in Somalia have been repeatedly delayed and once again failed to take place in December 2020 amid disputes between central and regional governments. The potential for increased activity by the armed opposition will raise the likelihood of additional sanctions by the US/EU. The position of Boris Johnson is also threatened as he seems to move away from conservative party from Brexit policies. Understand the outlook for international relations between the US and key partners (Canada, Europe) as well as rivals (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea) and the implications on trade, sanctions and the effectiveness of international organisations. Description. TRENDS Research & Advisory has a Barometer Department, which conducts studies and surveys, analyzing geopolitical, economic, and cognitive opportunities and challenges. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 after a tumultuous year which saw both 'the worst of times and the best of times' for the stock market, said analysts. Companies should assess any potential implications for social stability, as well as for India’s relations with Bangladesh. But increase in connectivity comes with certain threats. The calm and pragmatism with which the Russia has reacted to instability in Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, may not last through 2021. Russia & China will also develop vaccine and fill the markets. Ties with Russia, Beijing & Tehran, which have deteriorated rapidly under Trump, are also likely to be a particular focus in 2021. US – China: Stabilization without Normalization. Companies should assess and monitor how geopolitical relations with China may impact deals and financing in their sector of operation. The departure of Trump will alter the face of geopolitics and global crisis. Continued development of the dam will increase tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. Leaders will set the tone for domestic policies for the rest of the year, and the NPC will approve a new Five-Year Plan for economic and social development in the 2021-25 period. Recovery elsewhere is expected to be uneven, with much of the world not reaching pre-pandemic GDP levels until 2022, including probably the United States and Europe. The new year begins with good news of vaccine. The number 21 is connected to luck, risks, taking chances, opportunities & rolling the dice. Long Covid-19 & Fight over Vaccine. Reshuffles are likely and political risk for factions that lose out will increase. ... Options for investor migrants are likely to proliferate in 2021 in response to the growing demand, particularly in emerging markets. There are many opportunities in Post Covid-19 world but first the world leaders should unite to fight the Covid-19 for humanity keeping their own interests beside. Prepare for operational disruption from potential widespread unrest, as well as increased reputational and sanctions risks in the event of a heavy-handed response by security forces, which would attract criticism from the US and Europe. From witnessing gigantic losses to record-shattering gains, investors went on a roller-coaster ride amid pandemic. The incoming administration is likely to face a splintered congress, and populist reform proposals may pose risks to the business environment. Re-assess conflict scenarios and expect potential further ballistic missile tests and escalation of rhetoric. Global Mobility Today Global Mobility Trends Regional Mobility Trends. Businesses should assess the impact of alternative election outcomes on the prospect of business-friendly reforms, which have faced opposition from the public. The first presidential and parliamentary elections since the 2019 protest wave will shape the country’s outlook for the following four years and beyond. Assess scenarios for Somalia’s future as a potential investment destination. In 2021, climate related geopolitical risks are most likely to accelerate along two trend lines: 1) regulatory or legislative changes aimed at fossil fuel intensive industries, and 2) extreme weather events that disrupt supply chains and upend infrastructure. This year's report is available here. The elections will decide Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor, with implications for EU unity as well as EU trade, environment and foreign policy. The pandemic had brought the African IT sector a significant growth. April 7 – Composite and Services PMI data released in United Kingdom. The vaccines will develop in west and will be rolled out in Europe, North America & Middle East. Every year in January, Eurasia Group, KPMG's Global Alliance partner, publishes its Top Risks report which forecasts key geopolitical risks for the year ahead. Seasoned Macro Economist and Strategist Christian Takushi offers a compact and efficient online seminar, where Christian business leaders as well as church/ministry leaders can ask their questions. On this episode of the BlackRock Bottom Line, Catherine Kress, Advisor to the Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute, highlights three themes that will shape the post-COVID-19 world. Sri Lanka’s ability and political will to service this debt will signal the country’s overall commitment to external liabilities. For instance, how geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy play out in 2021 is likely to affect the global business environment for years to come. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can be a “game-changer,” but a lot more have to be done to refine the policies in 2021. The six-year anniversary of the Saudi-led coalition’s intervention in Yemen could trigger a renewed push by the UN to broker peace but may also bring renewed scrutiny by the US of Saudi Arabia’s participation in the conflict. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of the December 2021 Total Solar Eclipse. If held in early 2021, they will mark an important step towards improving political stability. The geopolitical outlook in 2021. Businesses that rely on government contracts should expect delays due to the government’s inability to pass a state budget. Overview. The president is seen as an illegitimate occupant of the oval office by half of the country. Shifting US foreign policies on everything from trade to aid have created uncertainty among our allies, and has contributed to a deceleration in global growth and … Biden Administration is also planning to re-join Paris agreement and participate in UN’s COP26 in Nov 2021. Although President Yoweri Museveni is likely to win the presidential elections – extending his 35-year rule – growing dissatisfaction with him and his National Resistance Movement is likely to prompt unrest and has significant implications for his eventual succession. 4. Companies involved should monitor the pandemic outlook for Japan and plan for potential disruption. After COVID-19 forced postponement of the Summer Olympic Games in 2020, the government, organisers, sponsors, and participating countries are likely to face difficult decisions in the run-up to the Games as the pandemic persists. The highly fragmented campaign points to further political instability. This is particularly important in the current environment, in which COVID-19 is acting as a great accelerator for geopolitical trends. April 6 – The US Energy Information Administration releases its monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will signal supply and demand trends in the US and global markets. With Morocco’s diplomacy dominating the headlines it is easy to overlook regional issues. Since last year’s event we have experienced truly extraordinary times both economically and politically. The elections will be a key test of his authority and his commitment to political reforms despite the challenges and will give potential investors an indication of whether Ethiopia can still live up to its huge investment potential. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead. While the full ambition of ACFTA – a continent-wide single market in goods and services – will not be achieved quickly, the direction of travel is important. Ten years after the revolution that led to the overthrow of Mubarak, signs of unrest are reappearing amid poor economic conditions and repression of freedom of expression. Published. These were the top trends selected by analysing the geostrategic policies, national interests of superpowers and other intangible factors. Geopolitical trends and forecasts Middle East and North Africa. The geopolitical environment in 2021 will be shaped by two global developments: the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration to restore collaborative relationships across the globe. In 2021, we expect global interconnectivity and the very architecture of the internet to come under significant stress – not just from increased usage, but from fundamental rifts in the world’s technology infrastructure. Three geopolitical themes shaping the post-COVID-19 world. Apr 7, 2021 Crude Oil Prices Struggle After Dual Crises, but Long-term Bullish Potential Remains Apr 7, 2021 USD/CAD Technical Overview: Trying to Snap the Downtrend The summit is expected to focus on socioeconomic recovery from the pandemic and fighting climate change. Russia is likely to protest the exercise as a provocation. Businesses must assess the potential longer-term implications on post-COVID economic recovery given the prospect of further gridlocks over government formation. As an example, the state of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific in 2021 will likely affect the global business environment for several years to come. We look ahead to America’s presidential inauguration, Germany’s & Iran’s new leaders, post Brexit UK & EU, and, of course, the world’s response, in business, politics, economics, climate change, and medicine, to the coronavirus pandemic. Now question arises that will London position itself as a low-regulation, low-tax centre, or will it prioritize legislation to protect British businesses? Monitor key regulatory trends relevant to businesses, including on environmental regulation, economic stimulus and pandemic management. Oil Prices Crash by 8% on Geopolitical Tensions, Recovery Woes ... Mar 18, 2021 at 5:12PM ... the price of crude oil is still up by 20% for the year and the long-term trends appear to … On 20 Jan 2021 President Joe Biden occupied the Oval Office. However, in mid of 2021 Iran is also having its own presidential elections and President Hassan Rouhani can’t run for a third term. Assess the impact of government and economic instability as fallout from COVID and Brexit dominate. These insights can better inform strategic decisions that include M&A, market entry and exit as well as other transactions. Anything that is in Air is not safe. Africa’s market has advantage in 2021 and beyond because it is the continent least affected by Covid-19. An independent analysis of current global geopolitical and macroeconomic events with a Christian perspective. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. Broader political and policy stability remains unlikely, but businesses should start assessing the potential outcomes of various succession scenarios. Welcome to the world in 2021. 1 Fights over vaccines. Looking abroad it will be hard for EU to pick up sides in US – China tensions. 1 Fights over vaccines. The countries in Southeast Asia will have to choose the sides more wisely whereas Europe and MENA will try to stay neutral. There is a high potential for major protests and calls for fresh military offensives by Armenian forces to recapture lost territory. Companies should consider alternative scenarios and assess any resultant political or regulatory risk. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Saturn-Uranus Square alignment in 2021. Poor Nations will try to domestically develop or diplomatically arrange the vaccine. The Middle-East in 2021: 4 Important Trends in Regional Geopolitics. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 after a tumultuous year which saw both 'the worst of times and the best of times' for the stock market, said analysts. Considering a notable reduction in ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine in late 2020, the summit could yield some progress in the peace talks. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. A potential victory for the opposition will elevate political and macro-economic risks. Given President Vladimir Putin’s declining approval ratings and growing public discontent with the economic slowdown, the elections will be a significant test for Putin and put pressure on political stability. Share: Image. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Next 100 Years. Companies should reassess conflict scenarios and any potential reputational risks that could arise under the Biden administration. The three key trends we believe will shape 2021 are Recovering from COVID-19 : As in times of war, the rules of the game are simply different during a global pandemic. In a world where the reduction of trade barriers has slowed or even reversed, Africa’s commitment to free trade will make the continent an increasingly attractive investment destination. A combination of low-probability, high-impact risks and inexorable technology trends make 2021 the year that cyber conflict will create unprecedented technological and geopolitical risk. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 after a tumultuous year which saw both ’the worst of times and the best of times’ for the stock market, said analysts. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. However, the younger Kim marking a decade in power will be a significant milestone, which he could choose to highlight with major events, propaganda or weapons tests. After a major tightening of Beijing’s control over the territory since 2020, including cracking down on opposition politicians and activists, if and how elections in Hong Kong proceed will be highly contentious. COP26 will take place in Glasgow (UK) a year later than scheduled, having been postponed due to COVID-19. Geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate over the course of the next seven years. This pivot away from traditional alliances and norms will continue to challenge and reshape the existing global order. The one red line remains intact – these states can go through massive unrest and even regime changes, but they should not get closer to NATO and the United States. The continent has the youngest population due to which it should be the centre of the world. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will likely signal her succession plans. These insights can better inform strategic decisions that include M&A, market entry and exit as well as other transactions. The opposition will likely capitalise on the current government’s dwindling popularity and increase its seats in both houses in Congress. The Center is engaged in a constant endeavor to understand the various dimensions of the prevailing global trends. But a fragmented and competitive exit from the pandemic will test relations between business, governments and society. The Perch Perspectives 2021 Forecast is divided into three distinct parts: macro trends, countries, and elections. 2021 will be a year of interactions between the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery and fractured geopolitics. Foreign criticism of the government’s handling of the polls could fuel tensions between China and other countries. 2020 will likely bear witness to Washington’s continued retreat from multilateralism on a gradual but steady glide path toward moderate isolationism. You are cordially invited to a webinar on Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. If the vaccine rollout proceeds as hoped, Biden may win some political capital. As 2021 approaches, here are top geopolitical and security trends to follow in 2021. 2021 trends include: the growth of racially & ethnically motivated terrorism, violent anti-government extremism, great power competition and COVID19. Every year in January, Eurasia Group , KPMG's Global Alliance partner, publishes its Top Risks report which forecasts key geopolitical risks for the year ahead. A year of unrest at Russia’s Borders (CIS). 4. After the traumas of COVID and Kim’s health problems in 2020, Kim Jong Un’s New Year speech and a rare ruling-party congress will give indications of domestic policy (possibly including a new 5-year plan), personnel and politics. Failure to hold them would be a significant backwards step for Somalia’s prospects. Businesses should assess new climate pledges made by countries in the months leading up to the conference and understand the pace and reach of any regulatory changes as a result of these pledges. The US-China rivalry will loom over global business in 2021. Businesses should monitor declarations leading up to the anniversary and assess the likelihood and impact of potential protests or conflict flare-ups. As 2021 approaches, here are top geopolitical and security trends to follow in 2021. While this will not lead to armed conflict, these tensions have already led to cyber attacks and could have ramifications for both countries’ wider international relations. Companies should monitor the summit agenda and assess the likelihood of any potentially business-relevant initiatives. But a fragmented and competitive exit from the pandemic will test relations between business, governments and society. Continued political deadlock and economic distress in Lebanon will lead to an emotional anniversary, as well as the potential for significant protests and unrest. Governments and institutions will be tested by considerable challenges over the next decade as the international order is restructured and global trends converge.. All forms of government in every region will face increasing tensions both domestic and foreign. As an example, the state of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific in 2021 will likely affect the global business environment for several years to come.